The Possibility of a World- Empire
THE progress of the imperial idea from the artificial and
constructive stage to the position of a realised psychological truth controlling
the human mind with the same force and vitality which now distinguish the
national idea above all other group motives, is only a possibility, not a
certainty of the future. It is even no more than a vaguely nascent possibility
and so long as it has not emerged from this inchoate condition in which it is at
the mercy of the much folly of statesmen, the formidable passions of great human
masses, the obstinate self- interest of established egoisms, we can have no
surety that it will not even now die still-born. And if so, what other
possibility can there be of the unification of mankind by political and
administrative means? That can only come about if either the old ideal of a
single world empire be, by developments not now apparently possible, converted
into an accomplished fact, or if the opposite ideal of a free association of
free nations overcome the hundred and one powerful obstacles which stand in the
way of its practical realisation.
The idea of a world-empire imposed by
sheer force is in direct opposition, as we have seen, to the new conditions
which the progressive nature of things has introduced into the modern
world. Nevertheless, let us isolate these new
conditions from the problem and admit the theoretical possibility of a single
great nation imposing Its political rule and its predominant culture on the
whole earth as Rome once imposed hers on the Mediterranean peoples and on Gaul
and Britain. Or let us even suppose that one of the great nations might
possibly succeed in overcoming all its rivals by force and diplomacy and
afterwards, respecting the culture and separate internal life of its subject nations,
secure its sway by the attraction of a world-peace, of beneficent
administration and of an unparalleled organisation of
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human knowledge and human resources for the
amelioration of the present state of mankind. We have to see whether this
theoretical possibility is at all likely to encounter the conditions by which
it can convert itself into a practical possibility, and if we consider, we
shall find that no such conditions now exist, on the contrary all are against
the realisation of such a colossal dream
- it could only come about by immense changes as yet hidden in the
secrecy of the future.
It is commonly supposed that the
impulse which brought Germany to her recent struggle with the world was rooted
in even such a dream of empire. How far there was any such conscious intention
in her directing minds is a question open to some doubt; but it is certain
that, if she had prevailed in the War as she had first expected, the situation
created would inevitably have led her to this greater endeavour. For she would
have enjoyed a dominant position such as no nation has yet possessed during the
known period of the world's history; and the ideas which have recently governed
the German intellect, the idea of her mission, her race superiority, the
immeasurable excellence of her culture, her science, her organisation of life
and her divine right to lead the earth and to impose on it her will and her
ideals, these with the all-grasping spirit of modern commercialism would have
inevitably impelled her to undertake universal domination as a divinely given
task. The fact that a modern nation and indeed the nation most advanced in that
efficiency, that scientific utilisation of science, that spirit of
organisation, State help and intelligent dealing with national and social
problems and ordering of economic well-being which Europe understands by the
word civilisation, -
the fact that such a nation should be
possessed and driven by such
ideas and impulses is certainly a proof that the old gods are not dead, the old
ideal of dominant Force conquering, governing and perfecting the world is still
a vital reality and has not let go its hold on the psychology of the human
race. Nor is there any certainty that the recent War has killed these forces
and this ideal; for the War was decided by force meeting force, by organisation
triumphing over organisation, by the superior or at any rate the more fortunate
utilisation of those very weapons which constituted the real strength of the
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great aggressive
Teutonic Power. The defeat of Germany by her own weapons could not of itself
kill the spirit then incarnate in Germany; it may well lead merely to a new
incarnation of it, perhaps in some other race or empire, and the whole battle
would then have to be fought over again. So long as the old gods are alive, the
breaking or depression of the body which they animate is a small matter, for
they know well how to transmigrate. Germany overthrew the Napoleonic spirit in
France in 1813 and broke the remnants of her European leadership in 1870; the
same Germany became the incarnation of that which it had overthrown. The
phenomenon is easily capable of renewal on a more formidable scale.
Nor was the failure of Germany any more a
proof of the impossibility of this imperial dream than the previous failure of
Napoleon. For the Teutonic combination lacked all the necessary conditions
except one for the success of so vast an aim. It had the strongest military,
scientific and national organisation which any people has yet developed, but i~
lacked the gigantic driving impulse which could alone bring an attempt so
colossal to fruition, the impulse which France possessed in a much greater
degree in the Napoleonic era. It lacked the successful diplomatic genius which
creates the indispensable conditions of success. It lacked the companion force
of sea-power which is even more necessary than military superiority to the
endeavour of world-domination, and by its geographical position and the
encircling position of its enemies it was especially open to all the
disadvantages which must accompany the mastery of the seas by its natural
adversary. The combination of over- whelming sea-power with overwhelming
land-power (But
now also, in a far greater degree, overwhelming air-power.) can alone bring so vast an enterprise into the domain
of real possibility; Rome itself could only hope for something like a
world-empire when it had destroyed the superior maritime force of Carthage. Yet
so entirely did German statesmanship miscalculate the problem that it entered
into the struggle with the predominant maritime Power of the world already
ranked in the coalition of its enemies. Instead of concentrating its efforts
against this one natural adversary, instead of utilising the old hostility of
Russia
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and France against England, its maladroit and brutal
diplomacy had already leagued these former enemies against itself; instead of
isolating England, it had succeeded only in isolating itself and the manner in
which it began and conducted the War still farther separated it morally and
gave an added force to the physical isolation effected by the British blockade.
In its one-sided pursuit of a great military concentration of Central Europe
and Turkey, it had even wantonly alienated the one maritime Power which might
have been on its side.
It is conceivable that the imperial
enterprise may be renewed at some future date in. the world's history by a
nation or by statesmen better situated, better equipped, gifted with a subtler
diplomatic genius, a nation as much favoured by circumstances, temperament and
fortune as was Rome in the ancient world. What then' would .be the necessary
conditions for its success? In the first place, its aim would have small
chances of prospering if it could not repeat that extraordinary good luck by
which Rome
was enabled to meet its.
possible rivals and enemies one by one
and avoid a .successful coalition of hostile forces. What possibility is there of
such a fortunate progress in a world so alert and instructed as the modern
where everything is known, spied on, watched by jealous eyes and active minds
under the conditions of modern publicity and swift world-wide communication?
The mere possession of a dominant position is enough to set the whole world on
its guard and concentrate its hostility against the Power whose secret
ambitions it instinctively feels. Therefore such a fortunate succession would
only seem to be possible if, in the first place, it were carried out half
unconsciously without any fixed and visible ambition on the part of the
advancing Power to awaken the general jealousy and, secondly, by a series of
favouring occurrences which would lead so near to the desired end that it would
be within the grasp before those who could still prevent it had awakened to its
possibility. If, for instance, there were a series of struggles between the
four or five great Powers now dominating the world, each of which left the
aggressor broken without hope of recovery and without any new Power arising to
take its place, it is conceivable that at the end one of them would be left in
a position of such natural
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predominance gained without any deliberate aggression,
gained at least apparently in resisting the aggression of others as to put
world-empire naturally into its grasp. But with the present conditions of life,
especially with the ruinous nature of modern war, such a succession of
struggles, quite natural and possible in former times, seems to be beyond the
range of actual possibilities.
We must then
assume that the Power moving towards world- domination would at some time find
inevitably a coalition formed against it by almost all the Powers capable of
opposing it and this with the sympathy of the world at their back. Given even
the happiest diplomacy, such a moment seems inevitable. It must then possess
such a combined and perfectly organised military and naval predominance as to
succeed in this otherwise unequal struggle. But where is the modern empire that
can hope to arrive .at such a predominance? Of those that already exist Russia
might well arrive one day at an overwhelming military power to which the
present force of Germany would be a trifle; but that it should combine with
this force by land a corresponding sea-power is unthinkable. England has
enjoyed hitherto an overwhelming naval predominance which it might so increase
under certain conditions as to defy the world in arms.1
but it could not even with conscription and the aid of all its colonies compass
any- thing like a similar force by land, - unless indeed it created conditions
under which it could utilise all the military possibilities of India. Even then
we have only to think of the formidable masses and powerful empires that it
must be prepared to meet and we shall see that the creation of this double
predominance is a contingency which the facts themselves show to be, if not
chimerical, at least highly improbable.
Given even
largely superior numbers on the side of its possible enemies, a nation might
conceivably prevail over the coalition of its opponents by a superior science
and a more skilful use of its resources. Germany relied on its superior science
for the successful issue of its enterprise; and the principle on which it
proceeded was sound. But in the modern world Science is a common possession and
even if one nation steals such a march
1
This is no longer true since the enormous
increase of the American navy.
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on the others as to leave them in a position of great
inferiority at the beginning, yet experience has shown that given a .little
time, - and a powerful coalition is not likely to be crushed at the first blow,
- the lost ground can be rapidly made up or at least methods of defence
developed which will largely neutralise the advantage gained. For success,
therefore, we should have to suppose the development by the ambitious nation or
empire of a new science or new discoveries not shared by the rest which would
place it in something like the position of superiority over greater numbers
which Cortes and Pizarro enjoyed over the Aztecs and Peruvians. The superiority of discipline and organisation
which gave the advantage to the ancient Romans or to the Europeans in India is
no longer sufficient for so vast a purpose.
We see,
therefore, that the conditions for the successful pursuit of world-empire are
such that we need hardly take this mode of unification as within the bounds of
practical possibility. That it may again be attempted, is possible; that it
will fail, may almost be prophesied. At the same time, we have to take " into account the surprises of Nature, the large field we have to allow
to the unexpected in her dealings with us. Therefore we cannot pronounce this
consummation an absolute impossibility. On the contrary, if that be her
intention, she will suddenly or gradually create the necessary means and
conditions. But even if it were to come about, the empire so created
would have so many forces to contend with that its maintenance would be more
difficult than its creation, and either its early collapse would bring the
whole problem again into the field for a better solution r or else it would have, by stripping
itself of the elements of force and domination which inspired its attempt, to
contradict the essential aim of its great effort. That, however, belongs to an-
other side of our subject which we must postpone for the moment. At present we
may say that if the gradual unification of the world by the growth of great
heterogeneous empires forming true psychological unities is only a vague and
nascent possibility, its unification by a single forceful imperial domination
has passed or is passing out of the range of possibilities and can only come
about by a new development of the unexpected out of the infinite surprises of
Nature.
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